Beat the Book

Here is a mathematical technique to help you convert any race into a profitable scenario by writing off the chances of the contenders which, in your opinion, cannot win.

At first, the technique will work best in early price races because you will have the time to make your calculations without fear of prices changing in midstream.

First of all, study a race and delete all the runners that you are convinced cannot win.

Next, you will need to carry out the following calculations on the prices of the live contenders you have selected - I have tabulated an example to make the explanation easier.

The example shows a list of selected 'live contenders' in a race, together with the best early prices available for each:

Early Price	*Expressed in terms of chance	Calculation	% Chance	Stake required to return £100
15/8	8 in 23	8/23 x 100	34.78	£34.78
7/2	2 in 9	2/9 x 100	22.22	£22.22
6/1	1 in 7	1/7 x 100	14.29	£14.29
15/2	2 in 17	2/17 x 100	11.76	£11.76
20/1	1 in 21	1/21 x 100	4.76	£4.76
Total stake required to return £100 provided any of the selections win				£87.81

*To express in terms of chance, use the second half of the odds fraction and the total of the odds fraction.

E.g. 15/8 would be 8 chances in 23 (15+8)

We can see that, by staking the calculated amounts to win on each of our live contenders at the best early prices we can find, we are certain of securing a £12.19 profit (13.88% ROI) regardless of which contender wins. We are confident of the outcome because we consider the runners we have eliminated to have no chance of winning.

Obviously you cannot use the technique if the sum of your percentages is more than 100. However, should you decide to eliminate a well-fancied favourite from your calculations, or your list of live contenders is very short, the potential profit can be significant.

The technique can be used in a live betting market once you become so familiar with the calculations that you are able to make them very quickly.

These calculations can be carried out extremely quickly and efficiently by using the

Beat The Book tool.

Professional

Betting

Portfolio

by Steve Jones

WINNER:

OUTSTANDING

CONTRIBUTION

TO TIPPING 2018

Awarded by

Smart Betting Club

BEST HORSE

RACING TIPSTER:

2021 Bronze Award

BEST HORSE

RACING TIPSTER:

2013 Silver Award

BEST OVERALL

TIPSTER:

2013 Bronze Award

As voted by

members of

Smart Betting Club

Recent winning bets:

Mon 21 Oct

ProBets

Sophia's Starlight

Won 10/3(r4) (SP 18/5)

Mon 21 Oct

Daily Bargain

Mister Bluebird (nb)

Won 11/2(r4) to 5/2

Sun 20 Oct

ProBets

Rubaud

Won 7/4 (SP 9/4)

Sat 19 Oct

ProBets

Charyn

Won 7/4 to 13/8

Fri 18 Oct

ProBets

Trilby

Won 7/4 to Evs

Tue 15 Oct

ProBets

Hidden Depths

Won 4/1 (SP 9/1)

Tue 15 Oct

Daily Bargain

Equion (nb)

Won 5/1 to 7/2

Mon 14 Oct

Daily Bargain

Rock Melody

Won 12/1 (SP 20/1)

Mon 14 Oct

ProBets

World Of Darcy

Won 7/2(r4) (SP 4/1)

Sat 12 Oct

Daily Bargain

Strike Red

Won 9/1(r4) to 6/1

+ Room Service (nb)

2nd(3/4l) 8/1(r4) to 11/2

Exacta: £41.10

Sat 12 Oct

ProBets

Lead Artist

Won 3/1

Fri 11 Oct

Daily Bargain

Sun God

Won 10/1 to 11/2

+ Mount Atlas (nb)

2nd 4/1 to 10/3

Exacta: £37.20

We 9 Oct

ProBets

Pique'

Won 4/1 to 15/8

Tue 1 Oct

ProBets

Mutasarref

Won 13/8(r4) to 5/4

Fri 27 Sep

Daily Bargain

First Officer

Won 14/1(r4) to 7/2

Thu 26 Sep

Daily Bargain

Sophia's Starlight

Won 11/1(r4) to 13/2

Wed 25 Sep

ProBets

Alpha Crucis

Won 5/2(r4) to 6/5

Fri 20 Sep

ProBets

Dembe

Won 4/1 to 2/1

Tue 10 Sep

Daily Bargain

Keilah (nb)

Won 4/1(r4) to 9/4

Mon 9 Sep

ProBets

Chalk Mountain

Won 2/1 to 7/4

Fri 6 Sep

Daily Bargain

Persuasion (nb)

Won 6/1(r4) to 4/1

Thu 5 Sep

ProBets

Warda Jamila

Won 11/2 (SP 15/2)

Wed 4 Sep

Daily Bargain

Coup De Force

Won 17/2(r4) (SP 9/1)

Sat 31 Aug

ProBets

Quietness

Won 13/8(r4) (SP 13/8)

Wed 28 Aug

Daily Bargain

Night On Earth (nb)

Won 13/2(r4) to 85/40

+ Albegone

2nd 13/2(r4) to 3/1

Exacta: £9.10

Mon 26 Aug

Daily Bargain

Lord Melbourne (nb)

Won 15/8(r4) to 5/4

+ Warning Sign

2nd(3/4l) 14/1(r4) to 11/1

Exacta: £15.50

Sun 25 Aug

ProBets

Sergeant Wilko

Won 11/4(r4) to 15/8

Sun 25 Aug

Daily Bargain

Godwinson (nb)

Won 4/1 (SP 9/2)

Thu 22 Aug

ProBets

Content

Won 10/3 to 3/1

Tue 20 Aug

ProBets

Shaw Park

Won 13/2(r4) to 5/1(r4)

Tue 20 Aug

Daily Bargain

Zero Carbon (nb)

Won 7/1(r4) to 10/3