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you will find back copies of old newsletters sent to site members.
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Newsletter:
Thursday 27 August 2009
For private members/free members
Price Finder 2
A new and improved version of Price Finder, the powerful betting tool
designed and constructed by Steve Jones.
Current Price Finder users please note: Anyone who has already
purchased the original Price Finder will automatically receive a free
copy of Price Finder 2 before the end of August.
Since its launch earlier this month, the original Price Finder has
proved very popular in highlighting the best bets to make in any
market. A live demonstration of its capabilities has been seen via the
ongoing System 42 trial. This, however, is just a very small
reflection of its full capabilities.
Following further work on the project, Price Finder 2 has just been
developed. The main improvements to be found in the new version are:
1. The conversion of betting forecasts into ratings has proved to be a
popular use (as in System 42). Price Finder 2 has the capability to
instantly convert a full betting forecast into ratings, without the
need for individual price conversions via the Tool Box.
2. Not only that, but the new version includes an extra worksheet on
which multiple betting forecasts for different events can be converted
into ratings and analysed at the same time, without the need to delete
data before re-use.
3. Also included in the new version is a second additional worksheet
on which multiple events can be simultaneously worked upon using
users' chosen ratings.
All you need, in order to locate the best bet to make in any race,
sporting event or reality market is:
1. Any data that compares the c ontenders to your satisfaction (a
trusted betting forecast, set of ratings or any other numerical data
you choose).
2. Price Finder 2.
3. Market prices.
Within minutes you will be able to clearly see the best bet/s to make.
How Price Finder 2 works
Price Finder 2 has an inbuilt set of formulae which compares the
chances of each contender, based on the ratings or betting forecast
prices you decide to feed it, against each contender's chance as
reflected by a live market.
A popular choice is the use of betting forecast prices to reflect
chance. Price Finder 2 will instantly convert a full betting forecast
into a set of ratings. The betting forecast you use doesn't need to be
rounded to 100%. The formulae built into Price Finder 2 will take care
of everything for you.
Based on the betting forecast data it is fed, Price Finder 2 will
instantly calculate, for each contender in any market:
1. True chance percentages for each contender.
2. Minimum
prices to accept for each contender.
3. And most importantly: Value indicators for each contender. Any
indicator over 100% suggests value, the highest figure being the best
bet at the prices offered.
Your own ratings, should you choose to use them, don't need to add up
to any particular number. They can be marks out of 10 (or any other
number for that matter), they can be based on newspaper ratings, any
other ratings, or they can be any figures or data you deem to be
relevant in comparing contenders.
Price Finder 2 will highlight the best bets to make in any race,
sporting event, reality event etc. You just need to provide it with
appropriate 'true chance' data, which it compares with the market's
reflection of chance. The more accurate your 'true chance' data, the
more effective Price Finder 2 will be.
Added extras:
Included with the Price Finder as an added extra is a Tool Box of
instant conversion tools which will come in ha ndy for everyday use.
Instantly convert:
1. Traditional prices to percentage chances
2. Decimal prices to percentage chances
3. Traditional prices to decimal prices
4. Decimal prices to traditional prices
5. Percentage chances to decimal prices
6. Percentage chances to traditional prices
All this comes in a single Microsoft Excel workbook and is available
for a one-off price of £9.99.
Free email support is provided if required.
For more information or to order your copy, please click here
All the best with your betting.
Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy
|
Newsletter:
Thursday 7 May 2009
For: free members/private members
Keeping your betting professional...
This week:
1. Scoop6: So close to the jackpot
2. Tipster combinations
3. Patterns of winners
4. Prices
5. Long-term success
1. Scoop6: So close to the jackpot
The free Scoop6 selections have been proving popular and have thrown
up plenty of decent-priced winners since they were introduced a few
weeks ago. Last Saturday, the selections very nearly landed the huge
Win Fund. After the first 5 races, there were just three tickets
remaining in the whole of the country. Two of those three tickets
belonged to a cdsystems member who had permed the free selections.
With a third place in the final race, the selections narrowly missed
out on the big prize but the compensation was £557 from four
successful Place Fund lines. The Win Fund rolls over to this weekend.
2. Tipster combinations
The Racing Post includes a table of selections for each race, which is
made up of prominent newspaper tipsters together with their own
correspondents and ratings methods. These summaries of selections are
popular with punters, which means they affect the market. A horse
attracting ten or more selections is bound to be heavily punted, very
often to the detriment of value.
Let's say there are two outstanding runners in one particular race.
One of them looks to have a slight edge because of one particular line
of form. The newspaper correspondents will all pick up on this
perceived edge, even though it may not really amount to much, and
select the same horse. The result is that the horse attracts say ten
or twelve votes compared with only one or two for its main riv al.
Punters looking at the table cannot fail to think that the dominant
selection is way ahead in terms of chance when really it was only a
relatively minor point which led to its mass selection.
So to perceive levels of chance based on a selection majority is
obviously a flawed line of thought. There could well be an outstanding
runner in some races, head and shoulders above the rest. But there
will be plenty of other races where the most selected runner has only
a very narrow form edge, if any, yet its true chance is grossly
exaggerated by nearly all the tipsters picking up on the same little
detail.
3. Patterns of winners
Whether you follow a system, make your own selections, or subscribe to
a successful private investment plan like ProBets, you like to see the
winners popping up in a nice regular pattern. Nobody likes losing
sequences and minimising them is seen to be important. But how
relevant are these sequences in a long-tem plan? The answer i s,
provided they are adequately catered for in the staking plan, not
very.
The reason why it is so important to anticipate these losing sequences
is that it is mathematically impossible to stop them from happening.
We don't know when they will occur but, if our long-term strike rate
is accurate, we are in a good position to calculate the length of
them. Thus, we set up our bank and staking pattern to cater for the
inevitable, which is the professional approach to a betting
investment. The amateur approach is to be unaware of these
mathematical certainties or, even worse, to think they won't happen.
So may punters spend hours trying to figure out why a losing sequence
has occurred, looking in vain to change something in their selection
strategy that will avoid them in future. If only they would spend that
same time setting up a staking plan to effectively absorb these
inevitabilities, they would be so much better off.
The toss of a coin is 50/50, or even money, event . The more times you
toss the coin, the more evenly matched will be the score between heads
and tails. However, as the coin tossing exercise gets progressively
longer, sequences of results will begin to creep in. There is no
reason for them, other than mathematical probability. If you toss the
coin 600 times, there is a 75% chance that one side will pop up seven
times in succession. Nobody would even try to analyse the reason for
this sequence because they know that, in the long run, each side of
the coin must eventually show up the same number of times.
If your strike rate on the horses is a long-term 50%, the same
mathematical principle applies. You don't try to analyse the reason
for something which is more likely than not to occur, but you do cater
for it beforehand. Strangely, punters never try to analyse the reasons
for a winning sequence, which in a 50/50 environment will crop up as
often, and be of the same duration, as the losing ones.
Footnote: If a coin lands on heads seven times in succession, it
doesn't mean it is any more likely to land on tails next time. Each
individual spin is a 50/50 chance and nothing that has gone before
affects that next spin. If you suffer a similar losing run with your
horses, your next bet has no greater or lesser chance of succeeding
than it already has.
4. Prices
Having established your long-term strike rate, all you need to do is
ensure you make your winning bets at big enough prices to provide a
profit. Sounds simple but this is the toughest part of betting. It
entails evaluating, as closely as possible, true chance which is
always going to be difficult in a horse race. Punters who evaluate
true chance most accurately are the long-term winners. Those who take
prices which are too short to reflect true chance will lose. That is
the main difference between professionals and amateurs. It is nothing
to do with selection methods, it is to do with chance evaluation.
There are no good or bad strike rates; it all depends on the prices
you secure for the winning bets. If your strike rate is 50% you need
to place your winning bets at better than evens, on average, or you
won't make a profit.
Spending lots of time improving your strike is of no use whatsoever if
you don't gain an additional advantage in price. It is better to spend
that time accurately assessing what you can do with your strike rate
it in terms of pricing, staking and banking strategies.
A 20% strike rate with an average winning price of 5/1 will serve you
well in the long-term but a 50% strike rate with bets made at even
money won't make you anything at all. Your average winning price has
to tie in with your strike rate in order for you to win. That is
obvious, yet the vast majority of punters' time and effort is spent on
trying to find winners, with so little time dedicated to the equally
important price considerations.
5. Long-term success
Having absorbed the previous discussions on patterns and prices, it
should now be easier to see why a professionally constructed operation
succeeds while amateur efforts fall down virtually every time. To
summarise, the shell of a professional operation looks like this:
a) Calculate the long-term strike rate of the particular bet type to
be used in the operation.
b) Calculate the likelihood and duration of sequences based on this
strike rate.
c) Set up a bank and calculate the optimum staking options based on
strike rate and sequences.
d) Work on regularly obtaining prices sufficient to sustain growth.
This is the day job.
e) Periodically and in a structured manner, re-invest profits to
optimise long-term investment.
That's it in a nutshell.
The reason why the ProBets investment works so well is not just that
it has a strike rate of 54%. More to the point, it has a strike rate
of 54% using bets which are struck at an average price of greater than
11/8, and that is without taking into account betting exchange prices.
The staking plan is also very solid. It takes into account inevitable
sequences and protects the investment during those times. Yet at the
other end of the scale, it doesn't fall into the common trap of being
overly cautious, a mistake that can jeopardise profitability just as
much as an over-aggressive policy. Optimisation is the key, both in
terms of staking and pricing.
Lots more pointers/advice to come in future newsletters. If you have
lost any back copies they are reproduced on the site.
Until next time, all the very best with your betting.
Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy |
Newsletter:
Wednesday 1 April 2009
For: free members/private members
Keeping your betting professional...
This week:
1. Preparing for Aintree
2. What do you think will win?
3. Simple mathematics
4. Switching investments
5. Small samples
1. Preparing for Aintree
I emphasised the following points before Cheltenham but I think it is
well worth revisiting them with Aintree about to start. These high
profile events always give rise to more than their fair share of
previews, reports, interviews, expert analysis etc, all of which
appear in the media each day. This public information affects the
betting markets and often in an exaggerated way. Reports of
high-profile horses being in top shape inevitably lead punters to
support them because of that information, resulting in prices
shortening to an artificially low level.
It is good to have all this information but it is also important to
realise that thousands of others have it too. Your use of public
information helps determine whether or not you make your bets at the
right price. There is a big danger of sacrificing potential value in
order to jump on the bandwagon in these instances. The shrewd layers
realise this and are more than happy to lay your bets at prices they
know are artificially short because of an over-reaction to public
information.
And, as always, just because a race is high profile (like the Grand
National), doesn't mean you have to bet more than you normally would -
or to bet at all without good reason. Thinking professionally at all
times is a good habit to develop and 'fun' bets don't form any part of
a professional's armoury.
2. What do you think will win?
I was reminded recently of an episode that took place in my local
bookmakers some years ago. I was stood in front of the main screen
watching the opening prices for a race coming through when one of the
regulars asked me: 'What do you think will win?' The favourite was 4/5
and had the strongest form, so I truthfully replied: 'The favourite
has to be the likeliest winner'. I hadn't finished what I was saying
as he scurried off to the counter. Minutes later he saw me writing out
a bet on the second favourite, taking the 9/2 on offer. 'You said you
thought the favourite would win' he objected. 'I do', I said, 'but the
favourite is probably one of the poorest bets in the race'. He
couldn't grasp what I was saying, remarking: 'How can you bet on a
different horse than the one you think will win?'. I tried to explain
why this is common practice in professional betting and the main
reason why professionals win and amateurs lose:
'If this race were run ten times, I'd say the favourite would win no
more than four of them. So I'd want better than 6/4 to even
contemplate a bet. I'm certain the second favourite would win at least
twice in ten runnings, so I'm happy with 9/2.'
I explained to him that it isn't what you think will win that counts,
it's the likelihood you think it has of winning. Once you are able to
bet against the likeliest winner, and know full well that you are
acting correctly, you are well on your way.
Of course, the likeliest winner may often be the right bet. It's all
down to how likely you think it is to win, compared with the rewards
on offer.
3. Simple mathematics
Whilst assessing a couple of significant market moves shortly before a
recent handicap, a TV presenter deduced that: 'According to punters,
the favourite (2/1) is now twice as likely to score as its main market
rival (4/1).'
A solid grasp of probability is essential for successful betting and
this particular observation didn't set a great example.
2/1 is the same as one chance in three (a 33.33% chance) whereas 4/1
represents one chance in five (a 20% chance). If those prices were a
true reflection of chance, the favourite was nowhere near twice as
likely to score as its main rival.
4. Switching investments
In today's economic climate, savers are lucky to get much more than 2%
on their money over the year. In fact, investments with the potential
to yield more than 3% are being advertised by as though they are
wonderful. The NatWest Cash ISA is top of many comparison tables with
its 3.51% AER (variable). The Birmingham Midshires 1 Year ISA pays 3%
on a minimum investment of £500.
That same £500 invested in ProBets would have earned 85.5% in just
four months from 1 December. A £1k ProBets investment has grown by
114.6% in the same period and a £2k investment by 129%.
The difference between the minimum investment ISA and the ProBets
investment, apart from the huge gulf in terms of reward, is the fact
that the whole of the investment doesn't have to be made available to
begin with. Because only 5% of a ProBets investment is required on any
one day, earnings can commence even if the full amount to be invested
isn't immediately available. With a strike rate of 57% over the last
four months (58 wins from 102 bets) and a longest losing sequence of
just 4 during that time, there is a degree of breathing space for an
investor to put together his/her fund whilst still being able to earn
on that full amount.
As always, the earnings figures quoted in the examples are net of all
fees and are based on bookmakers' prices rather than the very often
higher returns available at the exchanges.
5. Small samples
Much is made of trainers' strike rates at particular tracks. These
figures can sometimes be useful but it is worth bearing in mind that
small samples of data are potentially misleading. For example, I
noticed a trainer with a 30% record at one track which was made up of
three wins from ten attempts. On the face of it, 30% is a decent
figure but in this case the three wins had all been achieved by the
same horse, with the seven other horses he had taken to the venue all
well-beaten. Not only that, but two of the three wins were at odds-on,
so were therefore expected. Armed with that knowledge, he certainly
wouldn't be a trainer to follow blindly at the track. Similar
explanations can often be found for other instances of high strikes
from low samples, so it is well worth delving deeper than bare
statistics in these cases.
Lots more pointers/advice to come in future newsletters. If you have
lost any back copies they are reproduced on the site.
Until next time, all the very best with your betting.
Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy
|
Newsletter:
Wednesday 4 March 2009
For: free members/private members
Keeping your betting professional...some mid-week reading
This week:
1. Preparing for Cheltenham
2. Wait for the price
3. Don't bet with your own money
4. Suited by conditions?
5. Evaluating claimers/sellers
1. Preparing for Cheltenham
With the big show getting underway next week there are lots of
reports, interviews, stable tours etc appearing in the media each day.
This public information affects the betting markets and often in an
exaggerated way. Reports of a high-profile horse being in top shape
will inevitably lead punters to support it because of that
information, resulting in a shortening of its price both on the exc
hanges and with the bookmakers.
It is good to have all this information but it is important to realise
that thousands of others have it too. Your use of public information
helps determine whether or not you make your bets at the right price.
There is a big danger of sacrificing potential value to jump on the
bandwagon in these instances. The shrewd layers realise this and are
more than happy to lay your bets at prices they know are artificially
short because of an over-reaction to public information.
Cheltenham is a track that traditionally favours horses to have gone
well there before. Very often, proven ability on the track can more
than bridge a gap in ability between two horses and this is well worth
bearing in mind when assessing available prices.
...and don't be tempted into betting just because a race is high
profile. An evens favourite pays just the same at Southwell as it does
at Cheltenham.
2. Wait for the price
Common sense re ally, but if several of your bookmakers are offering
an acceptable price it is well worth waiting to see if there is a
subsequent market adjustment which leads to one or more of them
lengthening their odds. Always have a minimum price in mind before you
check the markets, and don't accept less. You will have calculated a
minimum price when you were analysing the race, so stick with it. It
is crucial that you reach this minimum price decision before you check
the markets, rather than the other way round. Trying to work backwards
from market prices, or even betting forecasts, and letting them
influence your own decision is the wrong approach.
3. Don't bet with your own money
Your first target as an investor is to double your initial bank. As
soon as that is achieved, take out your starting capital and begin the
investment again using just the accrued profits. From that day
onwards, you will never bet with your own money again provided your
investment is st ructured correctly.
As of close of business on 3 March 2009, ProBets investors who started
on 1 December 2008 with an opening bank of £600 or more have already
doubled their investments, just three months after commencement, and
that is after all fees have been accounted for.
Compared with the meagre interest rates available in the current
climate, this is tremendous achievement. A ProBets investment is able
to control the financial futures of its members, completely unaffected
by the worldwide situation and, as such, its growth is in complete
contrast to that seen anywhere else.
4. Suited by conditions?
The first thing most punters do when they see that the ground is soft
or heavy is to scan the form of the runners, looking for win and
placed efforts on a similar surface. That is all well and good,
provided the form being taken into account is at a high enough level
to be relevant. A horse that won a poor race on heavy ground early in
its career m ay have done so despite the conditions and not because of
them. It may not be able to handle the same conditions in the elevated
class that it now competes. The same principle applies to all the
conditions of a race, including track type and distance. Form at or
above the class level of today's race is infinitely more reliable, in
terms of a solid betting proposition, than that previously recorded at
lower levels of competition.
5. Evaluating claimers/sellers
ProBets investors will have noticed the huge success we enjoy in this
type of race. This comes about mainly because the media tends to
create a lot of value for us. The first thing media commentators latch
on to when discussing claimers and sellers are the horses 'best-in' at
the weights. By 'best-in', they mean most favourably treated by the
weights the trainers have allocated to their own runners, when
compared to official ratings.
For example, if two horses contest a claimer with weights of 9- 3 and
9-1 and their official ratings are 85 and 70 respectively, the media
will automatically pronounce the 85-rated runner 'best-in' because it
would have to concede 15lbs to its rival in a handicap, but only gives
it 2lbs today.
The problem arises when the official ratings aren't accurate, which
turns out to be very often in these races. Moreover, the reason a
horse takes its place in such events is usually because it isn't able
to compete in handicaps from its current mark. The secret is to
handicap the runners yourself. In doing so, your opinion of 'best-in'
may turn out to be vastly different from that of a commentator who
takes official ratings for granted, and influences the market at the
same time.
Lots more pointers/advice to come in future newsletters. If you have
lost any back copies they are reproduced on the site.
Until next time, all the very best with your betting.
Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy |
Newsletter:
Monday 23 February 2009
For: free members/private members
A selection of light reading....
This week:
1. Fiasco at Kempton
2. Check for headgear...and lack of it
3. Current interest rates and how to beat them
4. Understanding sequences
5. What they say
1. Fiasco at Kempton
The racing public, and not least ProBet members, were left dumbfounded
as Saturday’s bet, Bellvano, failed to start in the bumper. After
taking several turns, the runners were called in but Bellvano’s
rider, conscious of the possibility of clipping heels, began to take
another turn. At that precise moment, the starter let them go and
Bellvano was left to trudge back to the stables .
No blame was apportioned by the stewards, but there was obviously a
breakdown in communication between the starter and the jockey. More
importantly, Bellvano was officially pronounced a runner, which meant
that bets on him were lost. Shortly afterwards, several bookmakers
announced that they would be refunding bets on Bellvano. They included
Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Boylesports. A ProBets member kindly informed
me that he had secured a refund from bet365 after some negotiation,
even though they had originally settled it as a losing bet. Another
managed to obtain a 50% refund from Ladbrokes.
The message, therefore, is to contact your individual bookmaker and
try some negotiating. Quote what has been done by the above named
bookmakers and see if yours will follow suit.
For the purposes of the ProBet results table, I have recorded the bet
as a loser, although hopefully at least some of you will secure a
refund.
2. Check for headgear...and lack of it
It is easy, when conducting form study, to fail to pay due attention
to headgear. Changes in headgear will very often affect the way a
horse runs. The application of blinkers, visor etc, either for the
first time or after an absence without it, is likely to make a horse
keen in the early stages. These tactics are often used by trainers who
want their runner to take much closer order, or even make the running.
This can affect your pace calculations and also the way you think the
race will be run. For example, the horse you think will get an
uncontested lead and dictate a steady pace may be taken on up front,
making for a much stronger pace than you anticipate, or it may even
have to give way to the unexpected front-runner and use tracking
tactics when normally it prefers to lead.
It’s also well worth checking for any runners who normally wear
headgear, but who are without it today. The effects are less
predictable but the situation should be borne in mi nd, especially if
your intended bet falls into that category.
To be on the safe side, it is worth the few of minutes it takes to
check the headgear situation of every runner in the race and compare
it to recent races and previous effects.
3. Current interest rates and how to beat them
At the time of writing, Money.co.uk’s top-ranked savings account,
FirstSave, offers a 1-year deal of 3.6% for a minimum investment of £1,000.
That deal is 0.5% clear of anything else on the market.
The £1,000 invested in this top-rated account will be worth £1,036
after a year. No other savings account comes close.
Raising the risk factor, Money.co.uk’s current top-rated online
dealing service is TD Waterhouse, and the portfolio they advocate is
prepared by Fat Prophets. This portfolio made 19.4% during 2007,
meaning that a £1,000 investment grew to £1,194.
Set at a similar level of medium risk, the ProBets are easily
out-performing this top -rated outfit. A ProBets investment of £1,000
which commenced on 1 December 2008 is worth £2,082 today (22 February
2009), a growth of 108.2%. That is the net figure after all fees have
been deducted (and it also takes Saturday’s controversial
non-starter as a losing bet - see 1. above).
More of you are taking additional control of your finances by using
the ProBets service and if you need any help with the details I’m
just an email away. With an investment performance at this sort of
level the credit crunch can certainly be countered.
4. Understanding sequences
Sequences, both good and bad, are an unavoidable part of betting. Yet,
whatever your current sequence may be, it does not in any way affect
the chance of your next bet. The fact that you have either won or lost
your last seven bets does not give your eighth any more or less chance
than it already has.
The long-term strike rate of your bets governs the length of winning
and losin g sequences and there is nothing you can do about it, apart
from being prepared. Mathematical calculations based on strike rate
will enable you to anticipate likely sequences. The toss of a coin
gives a 50% probability of it landing on heads. The chance of it
landing on heads twice from two spins is 3/1. That is calculated from
the fact that there are four different combinations of how it could
land when spinning it twice (heads-heads, heads-tails, tails-heads,
tails-tails), with heads-heads being the ‘winning’ combination.
With three losing possibilities and one winning possibility, each of
which is equally likely before the first spin is made, the odds of any
one of those combinations occurring are 3/1 against.
Taking this further, and spinning the coin 600 times, the chances of
it landing on heads 9 times in succession is 50%. That means, if the
strike rate of your bets is 50% you have to face the fact that a
losing run of 9 is a 50-50 possibility, even though that m ay seem
highly unlikely when you are enjoying a winning spell. Recent results
have no bearing on this 50-50 possibility. Provided your strike rate
remains at 50%, the possibility of a losing run of 9 remains at 50%.
Understanding these mathematical rules is vital. Otherwise, when one
of these lengthy losing runs occurs there is a big chance of you
thinking you are doing something wrong and changing what has otherwise
been a successful long-term strategy.
For a simple table which displays expected sequences based on strike
rate, see the Don’t
Go Broke page on the site.
5. What they say
Continuing with my efforts to highlight totally meaningless statistics
given as ‘pointers’ by the media, this one takes the biscuit so
far:
In the build-up to a Wetherby chase, covered live by Channel 4 at the
end of last month, the commentator enthusiastically put forward a
negative for one fancied runner: ‘...but no horse trained in
Yorkshire has ever won this race before’. Enough said.
Until next time, have a successful week’s betting.
All the best for now,
Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy |
Newsletter:
Sunday 1 February 2009
For: free members/private members
Just the one topic this week....
Staking and banking using points
Based on several emails I have received, there is still an element of
confusion regarding the use of points as a unit for staking and
banking. This short piece is an attempt to clarify this concept for
those who are not already familiar with it.
A point is a unit which is universally used to overcome the fact that
investors set up banks of varying sizes. No matter what the value of
an initial investment, appropriate staking instruction can be issued
using points as a unit. For example, if the instruction is to set up a
bank and then divide it into 20 equal points, one point to be staked
on each selection, then an investor with a bank of £5,000 will stake
£250 whilst an investor with a bank of £1,000 will stake £50. Both
are staking the same percentage of their investment and, as a result,
both investments will rise or fall to the same degree.
Below is a worked example to further clarify the technique. For this
worked example I will use actual results from my ProBets, which can be
viewed on the site. This way, readers can substitute their own figures
in order to calculate how an investment set up at their own level
would have performed.
At this stage it is important to note that different types of bet
demand different levels of staking in order to obtain optimum
performance. This is advised within the instructions for each bet type
used on the site. The advised staking for the ProBets involves
dividing an initial investment into 20 equal points and staking 1
point on each selection for a series of 100 bets. The bank is then
prepared for the next series by dividing its new balance by 20 to
obtain the revised value of 1 point, which will then be used as the
level stake for the next 100 bets. This is the re-investment technique
which provides optimum long-term growth without subjecting an
investment to additional risk.
Worked example based on actual results:
Example bet type: ProBets
Example start date: 1 December 2008
Example initial investment: £1,000.00
Value of 1 point: £50.00
Level stakes (points): 1.00
Level stakes (£): £50.00
December 2008 performance:
Bets: 22
Wins: 13
Strike rate: 59.09%
Total stakes (points): 22.00
Total returns (points): 30.93
Total stakes (£): £1,100.00
Total returns (£): £1,546.50
Deductions (£5 per winner): £65.00
Net profit (Dec): £381.50
New investment balance (end Dec): £1,381.50
Net investment growth (1 Dec - 30 Dec): 38.15%
January 2009 performance:
Bets: 25
Wins: 15
Strike rate: 60.00%
Total stakes (points): 25.00
Total returns (points): 35.41
Total stakes (£): £1,250.00
Total returns (£): £1,770.50
Deductions (£5 per winner): £75.00
Net profit (Jan): £445.50
New investment balance (end Jan): £1,827.00
Net investment growth (1 Dec - 31 Jan): 82.70%
Please note that the 82.70% net growth, which has been achieved within
two months, has not involved any increase in stakes (which occurs only
after every 100 bets) and includes all deductions. Hopefully this
worked example clarifies the use of the universal staking unit of
points.
Until next time, have a great Sunday evening and a successful weeks
betting.
All the best for now,
Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy
|
Newsletter:
Sunday 25 January 2009
For: free members/private members
A
bit of light reading for a Sunday....
This week:
1. What the pundits say
2. Scoop 6 versus National Lottery
3. Your questions answered
4. Trading on the exchanges
5. Re-investment re-emphasised
6. The two elements of a bet
1. What the pundits say
Lots of statistics are shouted enthusiastically by TV pundits before
races. Some are relevant and others are not. Here are just a few:
‘No favourite has won this race for ten years’ (one of McCririck's
favourite lines).
Relevance: None whatsoever. Every race is a completely separate
entity. It is a unique grouping of a specific set of horses under
specific conditions. The fact that previous favourites have fared
poorly does not affect the chance of today's favourite in any way
whatsoever.
‘This jockey has won the race twice in the last three years’
Relevance: If he is riding a different horse today, not that much.
Although it is handy to have a competent rider on board, the horse has
to possess the qualities required to win the race under the prevailing
conditions.
‘This trainer has not had a winner for three months’
Relevance: It depends. If he has had a virus in the yard then that
situation needs to clear up. If not, and he has been running just a
few of his poorer horses recently, then the relevance is much less. A
small yard may have only one or two decent horses. The expected
mediocre performance of the lower lights does not detract from the
stable stars chances. The best way of looking at this one is to
concentrate on the prices of the horses to have run. If they were all
rank outsiders then the relevance of the statement is usually
negligible.
2. Scoop 6 versus National Lottery
Yesterdays Scoop 6 was not won, which means there will be a few
million quid up for grabs next time. Those who pick all six winners
next Saturday will, in addition to sharing the Win Fund pot, be given
the chance to scoop the Bonus Fund jackpot the following Saturday by
selecting the winner of just one more race. That jackpot prize will be
of National Lottery proportions but the chances of winning it will be
much better.
The chances of landing a National Lottery jackpot are around 14
million to one. The chances of selecting all six winners of the Scoop
6 races yesterday with a pin were 2.1 million to 1. By first of all
removing the rank outsiders, those odds were drastically reduced to
243,000 to one for the pin-sticker. Selecting one more winner (for the
Bonus Fund the following week) might increase those odds ten-fold but,
even so, a pin-sticker will have a far greater chance of landing that
big pot than winning the National Lottery. An able form student
significantly more so.
3. Your questions answered
In an effort to help/advise website readers, I answer many queries
each week. Sharing those answers with everyone in future newsletters
will hopefully benefit all readers, so here are a few for starters:
Q. Can you please explain to me how you can price up a race and still
determine value at shorter odds, such as for your ProBets?
A. In short, value can be defined as taking a price which is bigger
than actual chance. In racing, actual chance is obviously open to
opinion, which is why it is vital to price up a race yourself. Then,
by comparing your own prices to those on offer, it is easy to see
where potential value lies. The best bet in a race is very often not
the horse you think will win. This is a very important concept and the
one which most punters find most difficult to understand and act upon.
Having said that, potential value can be found at virtually any price
because it depends entirely your calculation of true chance.
Q. I am an avid follower of your sports bets and they perform
consistently well. What has been your longest losing run?
A. As far as I can remember the longest losing run has been four. It
happened fairly recently and also once during last year. I do not
remember any losing runs above four occurring during the nine years so
far.
Q. For how long would you paper trade a system before you actually put
money on it?
A. I would probably paper trade for at least 200 bets before I started
to invest any money, so that any unusual sequences could be played
out. The free trials I perform on the site are usually for shorter
periods than that, purely to allow me to run more trials during the
year.
However, the rules of all tested systems are permanently displayed,
allowing readers to paper trade further on the ones that interest
them.
Look out for a new Q&A section on the site in the coming weeks.
4. Trading on the exchanges
I intend to write a comprehensive piece on this increasingly popular
strategy in the coming weeks. For now, the obvious point to make is
that money can be made from trading activity without selecting
winners. The whole emphasis is on prices and judgement of how they
will evolve. For example, if you expect a price to contract you can
simply bet to win on the current price and then lay the shorter price
when the market changes (and vice versa). Whatever the result, you
cannot lose provided your stakes are calculated accordingly. The bets
I advise are obviously designed to provide value. From that point of
view, it is not really surprising that the vast majority of them
contract in price. That makes them very attractive propositions for
traders as well as longer-term investors. As far as my ProBets are
concerned, 22 of the last 30 bets have contracted in price (73%). Of
the 8 that did not contract, 7 won anyway. This makes the ProBets
attractive not only to followers of my advised investment structure
using win bets: 21 of the last 30 have won (70%), but also to the
traders.
The Daily Bargain bets obviously have a far lower strike rate because
they are aimed much higher up the market. However, because of the
inherent attention to value used in their preparation, they have
demonstrated a long-term pattern of highlighting prices well in excess
of SP, making them another useful tool for traders.
A private trading advice service is a possibility for later in the
year.
5. Re-investment re-emphasised
I cannot emphasise enough the power of re-investment. A cycle of 100
bets which produces a small profit is a potentially powerful
investment tool if it can be repeated several times. For example, let
us say you operate a series of 100 bets which, at level stakes,
produces a profit of ten points. Let us also say, for the purpose of
illustration, that you placed those bets from a bank of 20 points. At
the end of that series, your bank would have increased by 50%. That
means your level stakes for the next series of 100 bets can increase
by 50% without placing any additional risk factor onto the overall
investment. If the next series performs to the same level, the bank
will then stand at 45 points. Form a starting bank of 20, your total
investment has shown a growth of 125%. That is after just two series
of bets which each produced a level stakes profit of 10 points over
100 bets. During that time, you never risked more than 5% of your bank
on any one bet.
Here is a progress table of how a longer-term investment would perform
given the same conditions and performance:
Calculation criteria:
Starting bank: 20 points
Level stakes: 1 point
Profit for each series of 100 bets: 10 points
Re-investment element: Rule off after each series of 100 bets. Then
take 5% of the overall investment balance to use as the level stake
for the next series.
Series 1: Closing bank: 30 points
Series 2: Closing bank: 45 points
Series 3: Closing bank: 67.5 points
Series 4: Closing bank: 101.25 points
Series 5: Closing bank: 151.88 points
...and so on. Had your original investment been worth £1,000, then
your closing balance after just 5 series would be £7,594. And that is
with a performance that many would not find particularly inspiring: 10
points profit over 100 bets using level stakes of 1 point. Imagine how
an investment constructed in this way would look with a higher
performance level. For example, the ProBets profit over the last 30
bets is 20.6 points to level stakes of 1 point.
Do not forget that construction of a bank, together with the staking
from it, has to be calculated correctly. You cannot just choose any
bank/stake relationship because your likely losing sequences have to
be closely considered. To be able to do that, you have to have a good
idea of the strike rate your bets will provide. The Dont
Go Broke page on the site explains in detail how to set up an
investment bank and stake from it in order to gain optimum results.
6. The two elements of a bet
There are two elements to every bet you make: a selection and a price.
You cannot have one element without the other and they are both
equally important. The two together make up a bet. With that in mind,
it is amazing how most punters spend 99% of their time on the
selection element. Then again, most punters lose in the long term and
the reason is glaringly obvious. They do not put enough (or any)
effort into the price element of their bets. If you go shopping for a
loaf of bread there will be two elements to your choice when you get
to the shop. You will look at the different loaves displayed together
with their prices. If the best loaf is dearer than you think it should
be you are likely to opt for a cheaper one, provided it has sufficient
quality for your requirements.
Compare that analogy with a bet in the 2.30 at Kempton. The horse you
think will win the race is priced at 4/6. You think it has a 50%
chance of winning. Would you bet it to win at that price? Absolutely
not. There may be a horse in the same race that you consider has a 25%
chance of success. That one is priced at 9/2. It must be worth a bet,
and certainly in preference to your first selection.
Selection and price. They go together. They are not separate entities,
they are two parts of one thing: your intended bet.
It is so very difficult, especially at first, to comprehend betting
against the horse you think will win. But once you are able to do
that, and understand clearly and precisely why you are doing so, you
will be well on the road to success.
Until next time, have a great Sunday evening and a successful weeks
betting.
All the best for now,
Steve Jones
Professional Betting Advice & Strategy
|
©
2000 - 2023 Professional Betting Advice and Strategy from cdsystems
| |
Professional
Betting
Portfolio
by
Steve Jones
|
WINNER:
OUTSTANDING
CONTRIBUTION
TO
TIPPING 2018
Awarded
by
Smart
Betting Club
|
BEST
HORSE
RACING
TIPSTER:
2021
Bronze Award
BEST
HORSE
RACING
TIPSTER:
2013
Silver Award
|
BEST
OVERALL
TIPSTER:
2013
Bronze Award
As
voted by
members
of
Smart
Betting Club
|
Recent
winning bets:
Mon
14 Oct
Daily
Bargain
Rock
Melody
Won
12/1 (SP 20/1)
Mon
14 Oct
ProBets
World
Of Darcy
Won
7/2(r4) (SP
4/1)
Sat
12 Oct
Daily
Bargain
Strike
Red
Won
9/1(r4)
to 6/1
+
Room Service
(nb)
2nd(3/4l)
8/1(r4)
to 11/2
Exacta:
£41.10
Sat
12 Oct
ProBets
Lead
Artist
Won
3/1
Fri
11 Oct
Daily
Bargain
Sun
God
Won
10/1 to 11/2
+
Mount Atlas
(nb)
2nd
4/1 to 10/3
Exacta:
£37.20
We
9 Oct
ProBets
Pique'
Won
4/1 to 15/8
Tue
1 Oct
ProBets
Mutasarref
Won
13/8(r4)
to 5/4
Fri
27 Sep
Daily
Bargain
First
Officer
Won
14/1(r4)
to
7/2
Thu
26 Sep
Daily
Bargain
Sophia's
Starlight
Won
11/1(r4)
to 13/2
Wed
25 Sep
ProBets
Alpha
Crucis
Won
5/2(r4)
to 6/5
Fri
20 Sep
ProBets
Dembe
Won
4/1 to 2/1
Tue
10 Sep
Daily
Bargain
Keilah
(nb)
Won
4/1(r4) to
9/4
Mon
9 Sep
ProBets
Chalk
Mountain
Won
2/1 to 7/4
Fri
6 Sep
Daily
Bargain
Persuasion
(nb)
Won
6/1(r4)
to 4/1
Thu
5 Sep
ProBets
Warda
Jamila
Won
11/2 (SP 15/2)
Wed
4 Sep
Daily
Bargain
Coup
De Force
Won
17/2(r4) (SP
9/1)
Sat
31 Aug
ProBets
Quietness
Won
13/8(r4)
(SP 13/8)
Wed
28 Aug
Daily
Bargain
Night
On Earth (nb)
Won
13/2(r4) to
85/40
+
Albegone
2nd
13/2(r4)
to 3/1
Exacta:
£9.10
Mon
26 Aug
Daily
Bargain
Lord
Melbourne (nb)
Won
15/8(r4)
to 5/4
+
Warning Sign
2nd(3/4l)
14/1(r4)
to 11/1
Exacta:
£15.50
Sun
25 Aug
ProBets
Sergeant
Wilko
Won
11/4(r4) to
15/8
Sun
25 Aug
Daily
Bargain
Godwinson
(nb)
Won
4/1 (SP 9/2)
Thu
22 Aug
ProBets
Content
Won
10/3 to 3/1
Tue
20 Aug
ProBets
Shaw
Park
Won
13/2(r4) to
5/1(r4)
Tue
20 Aug
Daily
Bargain
Zero
Carbon (nb)
Won
7/1(r4)
to 10/3
Fri
16 Aug
Daily
Bargain
Ready
Freddie Go
(nb)
Won
3/1 (SP 8/1)
|
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