ProLays

A Complete Professional Laying Package from Steve Jones

To view results/performance: click here

Introduction to ProLays

Many laying services are unnecessarily complex. This one is essentially straightforward to understand and operate, whilst providing highly effective long-term performance.

I have conducted plenty of detailed research over the years geared to the recognition of vulnerable favourites. This research, combined with chance quantification techniques and staking optimisation, goes to make up this complete professional laying package.

Main features of ProLays:

* A complete professional laying package.

* Available by monthly subscription with discounts for longer terms.

* One lay bet per day, seven days a week.

* Advices sent by private email the evening before racing.

* Simple staking method is ideal for those with no time to track the market.

* Only one visit to Betfair is required.

* Price advice given with each bet.

* Advised starting bank: 10 points.

* Liability per bet: 1 point.

* The Notepad service, which sets out the logic behind the bets, is included with every advice.

Staking Advice for ProLays

1. Decide the value of your initial investment.

2. Split this figure in the ratio 2:1 (two thirds and a third).

3. Two thirds will form the betting bank, one third will form a reserve fund.

4. Divide the betting bank by 10 to obtain the value of 1 point.

5. Liabilities are 1 point for each bet.

Target 1: Reclaim the reserve fund.

When profit reaches 50% of the betting bank starting figure, take out the reserve fund and replace it with accrued profit. The situation is now as it was at the start, except that the reserve fund is made up of accrued profit. Continue betting as normal.

Target 2: Reclaim the betting bank.

When the betting bank doubles, take out the original betting bank capital. The situation is now as it was at the start, except that the whole of the betting bank and the reserve fund are made up of accrued profit. Continue betting as normal. From this point onwards, the whole investment will be funded entirely by accrued profit.

Re-investment policy now comes into effect.

The re-investment policy only begins when all funds (betting bank and reserve fund) are made up entirely of accrued profit.

Re-investment Policy

This ensures optimum long-term growth by re-investing profits on an ongoing basis.

1. After 100 bets, decide whether any personal withdrawals are required. If so, make the withdrawal first.

2. Split the total of the remaining funds (betting bank plus reserve fund) in the ratio 2:1. Two thirds will form the ongoing betting bank, one third will form the reserve fund.

3. Calculate the value of the new one-point liability by dividing the betting bank by 10.

4. Use this new level liability for the next 100 bets.

5. Repeat after every 100 bets.

On Receiving a ProLays Advice

1. Log into your Betfair account and navigate to the race concerned.

2. If there are any non-runners, refer immediately to the Non-Runners section below. If there are no non-runners, continue with step 3 below.

3. Ensure both the Back & Lay and Betfair Starting Price boxes are ticked (these are situated just above the list of runners).

4. Click on the pink SP box adjacent to the horse named in the ProLays advice.

5. Tick the Set SP odds limit box (this is situated on the right of the screen).

6. Using the Set Your Max Odds control, select the maximum price which has been advised in your email.

7. In the Your Liability box, enter the value which is equal to 1 point.

8. Click the Place Bets button.

9. Click the Confirm button.

Your transaction is now complete.

If Betfair SP is lower than the advised maximum price, your bet is guaranteed to be matched. If Betfair SP is bigger than the advised maximum price, your stake will be refunded regardless of whether the horses wins or loses. If Betfair SP is identical to the advised maximum price, bets will be matched on a first-come-first-served basis.

Non-Runners

Your daily advice will indicate any non-runners that have already been taken into account when the bet has been prepared.

Please check, before placing your bet, whether there have been any subsequent non-runners listed by Betfair. If there are, you will find them listed on the Rules tab in the right-hand section of the Betfair screen.

Provided all non-runners are accounted for, place the bet exactly as advised above and ignore the rest of this section.

Any future non-runners (after bet placement) will have the effect of reducing both your maximum lay price and your liability. Betfair will control that function automatically.

If any non-runners have not been taken into account on the advice, you will need to reduce both the maximum lay price and the liability yourself before placing your bet. This applies only to non-runners with a reduction factor of 2.5% or more.

a). Reducing maximum lay price due to a non-runner

Formula: New maximum lay price =

Advised maximum lay price - reduction factor % of non-runner.

b). Reducing liability due to a non-runner

Formula: New liability (in points) =

Old minimum profit figure in points x (new maximum lay price - 1).

Worked example including both calculations

Here is a fully-worked example showing what to do should a non-runner be declared after your daily advice is issued but before you place your lay bet.

Example:

An advice is issued to lay Horse A at a maximum price of 4.60

There are no non-runners declared at this time.

The liability is 1 point as normal.

Before you are able to place your bet, a non-runner is declared with a reduction factor of 50%.

Step 1: Calculate the new maximum lay price as follows:

Advised maximum lay price - reduction factor % of non-runner = new maximum lay price:

4.60 - 50% = 2.30.

The new maximum lay price is therefore 2.30.

Step 2: Calculate the new liability as follows:

First calculate the old minimum profit figure:

Liability in points/(advised maximum lay price - 1) = old minimum profit in points:

1/(4.60 - 1) = 1/3.60 = 0.28 points.

Old minimum profit = 0.28 points.

Now enter this figure into the calculation for new liability as follows:

Old minimum profit in points x (new maximum lay price - 1):

0.28 x (2.30 - 1) = 0.28 x 1.30 = 0.36 points.

The new liability is therefore 0.36 points.

You would therefore enter the following when placing your amended bet:

Set Your Max Odds: 2.30.

Your Liability: Value of 0.36 points.

Please note:

1. You need only make adjustments for non-runners unaccounted for on the daily advice.

2. Should there be more than one unaccounted non-runner, apply their reduction factor percentages one at a time in chronological order (times of withdrawal are given by Betfair on the Rules tab). Ignore any non-runners with a reduction factor of less than 2.5%.

Profit Calculation

Calculation of Minimum Profit:

Minimum Profit = Liability (ie value of 1 point)/(maximum lay price -1).

Less your Betfair commission.

Example:

If your starting bank of 10 points has a value of £1,000 (1 point = £100) and you receive an advice to lay a horse at a maximum price of 3.50:

Minimum Profit = £100/(3.50-1) = £40.

Less your Betfair commission.

ProLays Private Email Service: Subscribe Here

Your private email service will automatically commence on the first available betting day. If you wish it to commence on a later date please request this here.

The email address you use for payment will be the one to which all your private emails are sent. If you wish to use a different email address for the private service, or if you wish to register a second address for added security, please request this here.

If your payment is for an extension to a current subscription, the new period purchased will automatically follow on from the current period.

Confirmation of your subscription details will be sent to you by email before your new service commences.

Privacy Policy

Under no circumstances will email addresses ever be disclosed to third parties.

A Brief Introduction to Betting as an Investment

In the current economic climate there are increasingly more reasons why betting, when conducted professionally, can provide a very attractive alternative to traditional forms of financial investment.

Basic investment philosophy

The setting up of a betting bank is crucial to the success of your investment. That bank is your investment, just as it would be if you had a portfolio of stocks and shares, and my job is to manage it and make it grow. Your investment is geared to the buying of racehorses' chances rather than gold or copper but it works in the same way.

My operation is geared to progressive growth rather than short-term jackpot-hunting. If, at the end of an investment period, the growth of your investment is greater than you could have achieved with a financial package from a high-street bank, building society or financial services outlet, then the exercise will have been worthwhile. Historical performance has shown that far greater rewards than these traditional methods are possible on a consistent basis.

Trading in the chances of racehorses can produce exciting results when handled correctly, as can be seen from the fact that I managed a betting fund which provided a growth of 1,183% over a seven year period.

The main emphasis of my risk management strategy is to safeguard your investment. I will not allow it to be exposed to any greater risk than is necessary. The potential effect of negative sequences is carefully calculated and prepared for. With this essential safeguard in place, staking is optimised to ensure the maximisation of profits.

Here are a few excerpts from the training manual of one of the world's top fund management companies, clearly showing how the principles of traditional investment strategy can be successfully applied to betting:

"...if the risks are either too high or too low, then bet sizes and/or bankroll can be adjusted to produce the desired amount of risk."

"...profits and losses do not likely alternate with smooth regularity; they appear, typically, as winning and losing streaks. When the entire investor-manager team realizes this as natural, it is more likely to stay the course during drawdowns, and also to stay appropriately modest during winning streaks."

"...in actual practice, the most important psychological consideration is ability to stick to the system. To achieve this, it is important (1) to fully understand the system rules, (2) to know how the system behaves and (3) to have clear and supportive agreements between all parties that support sticking to the system."

By correctly following the simple rules of my investment plan you will give yourself every opportunity to reap the rewards it can provide.

Notes on sequences

Sequences are inevitable and can be both positive and negative. They happen whether we like it or not and are unavoidable no matter what we do. It would be nice if our winners could be spread evenly throughout the year but that will never happen. That's why I advise preparing an investment bank before commencing, and, provided we hit a sufficient overall strike rate for the price range we are targeting, our investment will flourish. Detailed discussion on the topic of sequences can be found in my article

Don't Go Broke (opens in new window).

Notes on re-investment of profits

With any successful financial plan, re-investment of profits is an important factor in securing optimum long-term performance. With this in mind, my suggestions regarding future management of the initial investment are as follows:

Once the initial bank doubles in value, take out the original capital and start the investment plan again, with a new bank of the same initial value as the first, but which is made up purely from accrued profits. You need only do this once as all future investment from this point will be funded by accrued profits.

Having achieved that first step, review your investment balance after every 100 bets and reset the value of the stake based on the closing balance. By doing this progressively your stakes will increase pro-rata to profit, thus securing optimum long-term benefits without increasing the relative risk factor attached to your investment.

Investors should take the time to read and absorb the following articles in order to gain a better understanding of how the investment plan operates (each link opens in new window):

Don't Go Broke

How Many Winners?

Getting Value

Psychology of Betting

Pearls of Wisdom

Steve Jones

Professional Betting Advice and Strategy